Electronic Gases and CVD/ALD Precursors
Jonas Sundqvist – Techcet
TECHCET—the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information— announced that the total electronic gas market will reach $6.25B for 2021, more than 7% above 2020 revenues. Over the next several years, steady growth is expected thanks to growing demand for chips and fab expansions worldwide, as highlighted in TECHCET’s recently published 2021 Critical Materials Report on Electronic Gases – Markets & Supply-Chains,
“Over the next 3-5 years, electronic gases will experience high growth due to the ramp of new leading-edge Logic and Memory technologies and continued growth in the display market,” stated Jonas Sundqvist, TECHCET’s Sr. Analyst. “At present, there is moderate growth in PV due to the ongoing switch from carbon to solar-based energy production, which will contribute to Specialty and Bulk gas demand. 3DNAND vertical scaling continues to drive the demand of WF6, NF3, and heavy rare gases.”
April 5, 2021: TECHCET announces that the global market for atomic-layer deposition (ALD) and chemical-vapor deposition (CVD) metal precursors for semiconductor manufacturing in 2020 was worth ~US$640M. Driven by advanced logic and 3D-NAND memory chip fabrication needs, demand for ALD and CVD metal precursors is forecast to see a 2020-2024 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~10% as shown in the Figure (below) from the most recent quarterly update to TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report (CMR) on CVD, ALD, and SOD Precursors.
0:00:00 Yeah hi everyone. My name is Jonas Sundqvist and I'm with Techcet in san Diego California and I'm very 0:00:10 honored to be invited to take part in the A. C. Event again this year 2021. So this time around I 0:00:18 will give you all a briefing on electronic gases and C. B. D. And L. D. Precursors that are used in 0:00:26 the semiconductor industry. So first let's take a look at the semiconductor industry development and 0:00:34 forecast for 2021. So I think when the pandemic came became a reality more than a year ago most 0:00:43 people thought that semiconductor industry as other industries would go down. Initially it happened 0:00:49 but it recovered quite good. So driven by people are being forced to work from home doing schooling 0:00:57 from home, enjoying life from home by using much more streaming media and social media of course. So 0:01:05 everybody has updated their phones new laptops and use much more Internet traffic today. And this 0:01:13 has been a boost for the semiconductor industry as a whole. And now coming out of the pandemic the 0:01:21 industry is very interested in. And also we as uh coming out out of the pandemic and get back to 0:01:28 normal again. So there's a big ramp up of production in fabs, new facts are being built, new caps 0:01:36 are being planned and this drives the whole semiconductor industry forward. Uh So if you look at the 0:01:43 forecast we have today so they're all very positive for the 2021. So the LSE research I see inside 0:01:51 the uh forecasting growth in 2021 between 19 and 20% W. S. D. S. Is a bit more reluctant but that's 0:02:01 an old one from december. Also the garden one is a bit old so they're a bit lower. They will 0:02:07 probably update going forward. So besides just internet you have a big demand of rollout of five G. 0:02:15 Mobile uh phone communication and also uh drive for automotive. So if you follow older um automotive 0:02:27 companies are now competing and launching launching new type of infotainment systems for their cars. 0:02:34 So if you look into devices where what does it mean and how does this relate to L. D. And CVD 0:02:41 processes? So over the past 15 years or so? Uh it has been a tremendous growth of L. D. Processes in 0:02:50 the semiconductor industry. So first of all, the implementation of new high K materials for Iran, 0:02:57 which took place around about 2004, followed by logic 2007. And then the transition from two D nine 0:03:06 devices to three D. Nand has been again for a lot of new CVD process space and also A and D. Of 0:03:14 course kicking out other technologies activity spin on the electrics and so on. So we see that the 0:03:22 engine in this uh that's pulling on. Uh the need for L. D. And C. V. The equipment precursor 0:03:31 materials and the whole supply chain for the flaps is for leading edge logic. So everything today 0:03:37 that's below 20 nanometer has a tremendous amount of daily process steps. There are some comparisons 0:03:44 out there. There's a good one bye from a webinar from tech inside this spring showing uh, if 0:03:51 comparing notes, like the intel with founder notes at 10 and seven nanometer. Uh, it's just a 0:03:59 tremendous amount of a leap processes. It's like more than 50 LD process that approaching 80 just 0:04:06 for logic devices, the same trend is going on for the Iran and three D. Nand. So this this is what 0:04:14 the driver in this industry um, and makes the L. D. Equipment market civilly equipment market uh 0:04:22 growing year on year. Uh and of course also precursors gases goes into this more to that to come. So 0:04:31 if you look ahead so we are now the event of thin fat happened um Which was a happy event for L. D. 0:04:39 A lot of new process steps not only related to the high K. Metal gate stack itself but also in the 0:04:47 patterning. So in order to make advance if in fact you need some type of uh double patterning, 0:04:55 quadruple patterning. If you rely on immersion lithography which has been the case until uh 10 0:05:02 nanometer inter node and seven nanometer foundry node where we have the transition to use a 0:05:08 combination of some layers with you the uh patterning and some with emotion and all types of trick 0:05:16 of doing multiple patterning. So spaces defined double patterning, quadruple pattern and combination 0:05:22 of repeating lithography exposure and national tipple time. The so called little actually to 0:05:28 actually touch technology and this is going forward. So now they are interesting time. Um uh so if 0:05:37 you look at the technologies that are presented out there for three nanometer or two nanometer 0:05:41 technologies, there will be architectural change going from the thin fat. So you have a film coming 0:05:48 up to get all around transistor technology there the fin is reshaped into up to three individual non 0:05:57 wires uh informing the new architecture for the transistor. And here you can imagine there's still 0:06:05 uh need of L. D. You have to conform to coat the Shannon's, the silicon Shannon's that are high in 0:06:12 openness with the high K. Metal gets stuck. You need to connect to them. It's all get tighter packed 0:06:17 and going ahead in the future. Looking beyond five years, you will most probably see some sort of 0:06:24 stacking technology going up in the cell dimensions, like you've been seen happening for uh three D 0:06:30 nand is in discussion also for D RAM. So it will definitely remain exciting for L. D. N C V. D. For 0:06:40 many years to come. And everybody's uh expecting continued growth. So not only related to that, the 0:06:48 number of wafers that are produced goes up, but you also have the drive that you have new 0:06:52 applications, new patterning technology that more and more rely on ale, the R. A selective 0:06:58 deposition, atomic layer etching and this type of advanced atomic level processes. So if you look 0:07:07 then more in detail on the logic. So how is it split up? So you start with the fin which will 0:07:14 survive most probably through the third three nanometer. Note some may switch earlier. And then you 0:07:20 have this transition taking place at going from 3 to 2 nanometer where the uh non wire transistor 0:07:28 will get all around. Uh, the feds comes in or nano sheets as the industry now starts to call it. 0:07:34 Then there it will continue the development. So I make is working on new designs going forward. So 0:07:42 the fork sheets could come after non shit where you can go below the five T. Uh and other things 0:07:52 that comes is uh, metal ization, which will have to change uh when it gets densely packed and also 0:07:59 higher aspect ratio, uh, contacts to the contact level is getting tight. And this is a great 0:08:05 opportunity of course for conforming deposition methods like C. V D N A N D. And if you want to look 0:08:13 as far as one on a meter, we have mm has presented the Good Daughter on two D. Shannon material 0:08:20 tanks than disqualified. There's other materials presented out there uh, based on molly or other 0:08:28 metal to the materials we have TSMC and there are a couple of universities recently presented 0:08:36 functional uh one on a meter uh, technology based on two D. Shannon materials. And we expect more to 0:08:44 come. So if you look at three D nand so here the scaling races not more tighter, tighter it's higher. 0:08:53 Higher. So this type of skyscraper architecture and there are some infliction points here to look at 0:09:01 which drives the need for more in the N. C. D. Process equipment. And that is that there is you 0:09:08 can't go on stacking forever. You have to run this module twice or three times and every time you 0:09:14 have to run a model and repeated. It means not only more precursors are needed in production but 0:09:21 also more equipment that drives the equipment industry for more invests into the fabs. Whereas 0:09:27 lithography in this case, since it's stop scaling in the lateral direction remains with you can 0:09:34 solve all the problems by using the well developed tricks with emotion and uh double patterning for 0:09:43 ripple pattern and these types of technologies no real need to go for UV for three D. Nine. But you 0:09:49 have to remember this is a lot of wafers out. There is a big part of the total 300 millimeter 0:09:55 production globally. And it all ends up one day in your laptops, in your phones, in your tablets and 0:10:01 in daughters dollars. So as local uh storage media. So uh the room has been for a couple of years, 0:10:13 depends on who you ask and so less exciting. But suddenly a lot of things happen also in the room. 0:10:19 So you have two things, the big one, UV lithography, uh, the top three uh and dominating companies, 0:10:31 some soon microphone sk hynix has uh um are going to be patterning for the room. So they have come 0:10:38 now down and below the one zet notes. So they you know, they got a big problem with the note naming. 0:10:47 So like for three X. Uh this is old three X. Waver from Qimonda with rossini Monitor the development 0:10:57 way for uh the last one that was technologies made at Qimonda. Since then they went down to two X. 0:11:04 Technology to Y. And then we have the one Xy set and beyond this. Uh there's a need of E. V. But you 0:11:12 see that the dimensional scaling is flattening out. So there's a lot of architectural alternatives 0:11:18 going in the third dimension here. That being presenting now. But there's nothing out in the field 0:11:25 yet of that interesting for L. D. Of course is that until this point uh the Deer and select 0:11:33 transistors was based on uh basically policy on old school technology. Uh But now there has been 0:11:41 confirmed that some soon um and also Sm has confirmed that in the public releases that for the 0:11:50 latest DDR five products from Samsung has actually L. D. High K. Metal gate stack on it. So that's a 0:11:57 huge win for that market because uh it only comes one this process, but there's a lot of L. D. 0:12:05 Involved in the gate stack. It's not only, you know the halftime oxide layer, you also may need to 0:12:11 touch the interface, you may need to dope to have um oxide with something like a lantern on like you 0:12:16 do in logic. Uh when you do the transistors that you need to be able to separate and anti most you 0:12:23 have different work function methods, you have it stops and so all uh technology that's usually 0:12:28 taken care of by L. D. So it's a big number of Chambers has to go out there if the big companies 0:12:34 like Samsung and Sk Hynix and Micron decides to go with it. Uh So that looks pretty good for those 0:12:42 companies that are in these games. And also the precursor surprise. Of course. Yeah, it's not only 0:12:50 the big companies, there's also, you know, smaller time in these different companies like Nanya 0:12:55 Winbond. Zonana has also announced investment planned investments in Evil Photography. So dear and 0:13:02 will remain interesting. Uh Other things that is interesting is that uh even that china uh market is 0:13:12 trailing both technology for their um flesh and logic. There's a lot of L. D. And C. V. D. 0:13:21 Implementation taking place in the chinese foundries or S M. I C. Uh 14 nominative in fact, you 0:13:29 can't make of in fact technology without a lot of L. D. Processes. And usual suspects of pre process 0:13:36 maybe it's not like eight LD processes, but they need a big share of at least 2025 led processes to 0:13:43 do the front and um for that. And this is done uh boosting maybe the local the chinese equipment 0:13:51 manufacturers, you have at least three uh serious uh equipment manufacturing china's or a mech 0:13:59 Campanini. Uh Nora and one more. And they have all advanced process equipment aiming at a market and 0:14:13 look the chinese junks. The memory company also have three D nand technology using 64 layer here as 0:14:20 pictures. It's uh not the most advanced but it's getting there. I mean, the other manufacturers has 0:14:26 96 layers. China is catching up slowly have 64 layer technology. It's a lot of LD going into that as 0:14:33 well to do the, all the layers that has to be within the owner device, the electrodes and so on. A 0:14:42 lot of times than uh, CD LP proceed. So let's look at quickly at some other markets. Uh, foldable 0:14:50 tax, uh did not get hit so much by the pandemic. Didn't go down, but it didn't, it still has a good 0:15:01 growth in last year. And and if you look back, you see it's a lot of growth going back the past 10 0:15:07 years from 2010 in this market. Its uh overall, something like uh 14% annual growth. Now may slow 0:15:19 down a bit to the latest projections to going down to five year forecast of 8.5 kg are uh and here, 0:15:25 of course, from a deep perspective, what's interesting is the backside preservation with aluminum 0:15:30 oxide. It's basically a market that mainly take place in china, but there's also some new solar 0:15:40 perhaps being announced different places in europe in Germany and north America requiring a li 0:15:46 equipment for personal. Uh uh It's a quick look at the display uh seems that people were happy 0:15:55 looking at their laptop uh instead of buying a new big uh T. V. At home in the living room because 0:16:06 the most markets went down during the pandemic. But there is already some recovery uh seen. So 0:16:15 display market is going up but it lost overall 10% during the pandemic. So if you look specifically 0:16:22 for LED displays, the micro elegies and are the type of uh nano integration where there is 0:16:29 opportunities also for LD processes or but on a smaller emphasis. So this is not happening at uh 300 0:16:36 millimeter. It's as you know, 200 millimeters six inch wafers in this type of wafers. And there was 0:16:44 also hit because it's display related by uh pandemic uh but seems to be in recovery. I don't have 0:16:53 the latest daughter for the last quarter, but it seems to be back on track, flat panel displays. 0:16:59 Again, these are more all types of displaced, not specifically for mobile or laptops. Uh But it's 0:17:10 maybe not aiming its for the L. C. D. Market. And some lady Olave market forecast is good growth but 0:17:18 was a bit uh flattened as well during the pandemic. And if you look at the demand for large areas 0:17:27 supply, it's steady going forward. If you believe the forecast going from all the way until 2022, so 0:17:36 6% growth. Uh many opportunities for plasma CVD um and also l the opportunities in display. So by 0:17:48 that I will now give a more material focused update on the electronic gas market followed by L. D. 0:17:55 And 70 precursors. So the overall market has uh Gross on a regular basis by at least typically 56% 0:18:05 every year. So if you look at the division we make a text that is between bulk gases and specialty 0:18:12 gases to the bulk gases. Is more dependent on a lot of other industries, uh Not semiconductors or 0:18:20 industrial manufacturing, medical industry. Uh So use a lot of bulk gases like oxygen, nitrogen, uh 0:18:28 hydrogen and the energy markets also of course and specialty gases. This is verifying your typical 0:18:34 process gases that used for advanced etch CVD plus massive E. D. And L. D. And doping materials. 0:18:41 More details on that to come. So this this is a market that is heavily uh driven by the 0:18:48 semiconductor and electronic industry. And this is also why there is a higher growth threatened in 0:18:55 this market. So if you look at the five year kg are going forward, it's about 7.6% according to our 0:19:00 projections. And to compare with that, you have a general growth rate for the same market. 5 to 11%. 0:19:07 The photovoltaic market about 8.5. And flat panel display is 4.3. So you see here uh that 0:19:15 semiconductor definitely have the strong impact on this market. So what gases are used. And so if 0:19:23 you don't look, you know, I know most people are interested in, you know, the metal precursors to 0:19:27 silicon progress and so on. But there's a lot of gas is being used in alien 70 processing. And it's 0:19:33 also you know preferred, it's easy to hook up and you can have a big supply of it. And some can even 0:19:39 be manufactured locally in big air separation units. So you have in all the carrier gases used like 0:19:45 to have your inert gas pulse in L. D. Side, nitrogen organ can be out of gases in other special 0:19:52 processes. Then you have a big one for sure. Thanks. And hexafluoride um used for all types of 0:20:00 Pakistan contacts and uh utilization applications. Uh Then you have dope plants. So you know you 0:20:09 need N. And P. Masindi your device, you need to dope it. You can use our scene for scene Deborah, 0:20:16 you can do if you grow any type of nitrate metal nitrates, uh other nitrates you need ammonia. Uh 0:20:26 It's big need then have a bunch of these other gases that are mainly for edge. You know the floor 0:20:34 nated uh gases, uh carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, the rare gases like helium, helium seen on 0:20:44 krypton. But there's a lot I tell you there's a lot you can learn from the edge guys. So, uh, 0:20:53 initially you 10 if you go into plasma, you maybe use like uh, nighttime plasma oxygen plasma and 0:21:00 you don't think about the other components started tricks you can do with the plasma that the excess 0:21:04 has figured out long time ago. So by controlling the physical component of if you want to activate 0:21:11 your process physically more, you can pick the right ions in I note iron, so you can have light 0:21:17 helium or you can go for something heavier like krypton seen on for instance. And you can do a lot 0:21:22 of interesting tricks also in plasma LD by doing so. And of course in that activity. So it's a big 0:21:29 varity of gases and you see most of them found a home in the semiconductor industry display industry 0:21:36 don't use as many. And solar has reduced amount. And then, yeah, medical, it's mainly the bulk gases 0:21:43 and somewhere gases and the aerospace and automotive is also less diverse. So, uh, and it's not as 0:21:51 simple that you just use these gases. It's also, you know, the secret source. Each manufacture use 0:21:57 their own mix. So they can be processes out there that use 10 different gases to etch high 0:22:04 expectations structures in three D nine for instance, because you have to go through those 0:22:09 dielectric stacks, you switch between different direct tricks and, but you still have to go down and 0:22:14 you have to do it in three day and you have effects that becomes stronger as deep you go and there's, 0:22:20 you don't only use the hardware to do all the tricks in the book. You also used the gas mixture and 0:22:24 continuously change the gas mixture. Uh, it's a time control in the process what gas you use and 0:22:31 when. So if you look at the big picture, the big gas companies that this market is, you know, for 0:22:38 semiconductors, the Tier one man, if gas suppliers like they had a big event linda and practice are 0:22:45 decided to march, none of these companies were really too much into L. D. And CVD precursors, but 0:22:53 has been that on and off through the times. Um, and this created a lot of room for the smaller 0:23:01 competitors to pick up some of the divestment as that this merger led to, so to not end up with big 0:23:08 monopoly situations across the globe. So we have seen that ionic concerns semester our water has 0:23:15 entered the U. S. And european union markets due to this, it has been beneficial in that way. A lot 0:23:22 of activities in china uh, from gas companies. So you have both the state owned companies and 0:23:29 privately owned companies. We can tell you more about that if you are interested. And let's go to 0:23:38 what you've all been waiting for and save the good stuff to last LDN CBD precursors. So what are the 0:23:46 challenges? So as I mentioned in the beginning the deposition has uh segment which is a big part of 0:23:54 the semiconductor equipment market correspondent to almost 22%. So you see that you have the three 0:24:01 big segments or lithography is and lithography. You find you know a SML Canon Nikon three big 0:24:07 companies. SML is number one due to the lithography uh H and clean here March. So it's both a 0:24:15 reactive ion etching and other type of clean equipment. And deposition with consists of CVD as the 0:24:22 biggest segment followed by L. D. Followed by T. V. D. And then you have plating and spin on 0:24:28 dielectric and some other segments that related to them. So CVD is the big one and you can see 0:24:38 growth in this segment. So it's uh not that it's getting smaller overalls, deposition is 0:24:44 increasingly important here by year. And this is driven by the uh I'm a number of new materials 0:24:51 entering uh semiconductor manufacturing. So uh if you go like early 2000 you didn't have too many 0:25:01 different materials. You had you know silicon oxide, silicon nitride, different types of silicon. 0:25:06 You know you had uh amorphous silicon uh you had polio, you had uh episode silicon and so on. And 0:25:14 then from utilization aluminum thanks to uh copper mainly and some barrier materials like thai 0:25:21 nitrite and nitrate. Maybe some cobalt also but and some silly sides maybe I forgot something but 0:25:29 that was the pictures since then. You know what has happened. L. D. Enter the game. We have half 0:25:34 noon have um oxide, zirconium oxide length and um oxide in high volume manufacturing a lot of cobalt 0:25:42 growth form utilization. The basically the the lower metal ization levels for uh leading edge logic 0:25:51 is now becoming dominated by solutions by cobalt. So either just various it or the complete 0:25:57 utilization, the plug, the context. There is some new materials entering here within um and 0:26:05 molybdenum. However, that's at the moment in some sort of floating barriers between R. And D. And 0:26:13 pilot ready to go I would say for long. But there are some issues to be solved. It'd relate to 0:26:19 cleaning cmp and all these other processes that you see in the other segments there that you need to 0:26:25 actually do successful device integration. So 0:26:32 so if you look at first hike metal and high case of difficult. So so this is where you find aluminum 0:26:38 dominating. But I am a uh some new uh market share from aluminum chloride. So there's some reasons 0:26:45 that you want to get rid of T. M. A. One is that it is a bit dangerous to handle. And the other one 0:26:51 is that aluminum chloride typically have better electrical performance. Uh lantern um has moved in. 0:26:57 So all it was doped into the stacked with T. V. D. But going to feel fat treated design. Uh Many 0:27:03 companies will switch to do, it actually is a couple of cycles of uh led lantern walk side that is 0:27:08 then driven into the coffin of oxide and it saturates all the dangling bonds in half marks. And you 0:27:14 get a great reliability Cecconi um every day. Oh, United in the ram rossini. Um how to measure how 0:27:21 big this market is because it's not really uh in high volume as proven by reverse engineering yet. 0:27:27 But if it would be uh to come, it would be a decent market due to the high price of routine um 0:27:33 simply coupled, as I mentioned, is growing also relative expensive precursor. And we see here that 0:27:40 this is a TB precursor has taken over and it's now about 90% of the total market has compared to the 0:27:48 cocoa cp molecule, uh, titanium used in the Iran for electrodes, it's used in the gate stack for 0:27:57 tonight. Right? It can I'd ability the mathematical mostly. Pt matt is a very good barrier for 0:28:04 tantalum nitride barriers for corporate diffusion. It's still in use and will continue to use so um 0:28:10 for a long time because this logic processes just keep on uh finding new markets and new customers 0:28:18 and big investments. They will not go away. Um and thanks to uh it's used everywhere and 0:28:25 increasingly so when you do three D. Devices and still use dancing contact, we may see some 0:28:30 replacement here with morley but it has not happened yet. General good growth in this market. 8% 0:28:36 forecast at kg are um if you look at Dilek tricks, the growth forecast is slightly lower but still 0:28:45 good 6.1%. And here we have many processes that are related to patterning. So double patterning for 0:28:53 triple patterning where you can use molecules like B. D. S deepest depending on who you buy from and 0:29:00 what's called um uh For the dielectric stack in three D nand, you have a lot of plasma activity 0:29:09 relying on precast like H C D s T. Say that the bus is a big uh it's not the biggest segment but 0:29:18 it's sort of uh evergreen segment of its own. And chaos is also one of these uh segments that will 0:29:27 probably always exist to never go away. And then there's also in the bottom there you see a big a 0:29:34 big segment of spin on dialectics which which is used in the Metal ization and in the back back end 0:29:40 of line and also in back end of course. Uh so I'll be finished now uh sort of running out of time 0:29:48 but I want to say something about the environment and there's a lot of gas is bad guesses that are 0:29:55 there. They're mainly used in this case for etching. You know, the real bad guys with a high uh C. 0:30:03 02 excellent performance. Um So SF six, NF three and C four and they are constantly increasing in 0:30:11 our atmosphere. And the semiconductor industry there are studies has a contribution about 2% to 0:30:19 discuss. It. Maybe not sounds too much this other than to reverse, but you know, semiconductor 0:30:23 industry has a high growth cuts. If it's 2% today go 10 years ahead and this uh you know the climate 0:30:30 projections go 50 years ahead. Uh Semiconductor will definitely one of the media or contributors is 0:30:36 now and it's not only the ceo to equivalent gases that are the greenhouse gases causing prominent 0:30:44 also energy demands. Uh This is based on a study presented recently by I make it I. D. M. 2020 in 0:30:51 san Francisco. Uh So they calculated the energy consumption for each logic notes. So you can see 28 0:30:57 nanometer going, you know, 14 75 9300, 200 so on. You see how the energy demand uh Left axis. Uh 0:31:07 This one this one uh it goes up for each note uh and this seems to be no end to it. Uh, see you to 0:31:15 output emissions from process also goes up. This um, doesn't look so good. So, you know, you have 0:31:22 the underlying production number of wave starts are going up, demand is huge. Uh, the emissions and 0:31:29 electrical consumption goes up. There's starting to be even on the island of Taiwan, a problem that 0:31:36 TSMC by introducing E V now is using something like 5% of the total uh, production of electricity on 0:31:46 the island. So this is definitely a topic to, to look at and something that we also camera takes it. 0:31:51 So by that I'm done, I will thank you very much. Sorry for going to minutes over. Maybe the 0:31:58 organizers can cut out those and if you want to contact me, get in touch with tax it um, info dot 0:32:04 text that we have reports on precursors, c V A L D and gases. We also do custom studies for anything 0:32:12 that's out there. Thank you so much.